What Story Are The Numbers Telling For New Flyer Industries Inc. (TSX:NFI)

The Current Ratio of New Flyer Industries Inc. (TSX:NFI) is 1.76.  The Current Ratio is used by investors to determine whether a company can pay short term and long term debts.  The current ratio looks at all the liquid and non-liquid assets compared to the company’s total current liabilities.  A high current ratio indicates that the company does not have trouble managing their working capital.  A low current ratio (when the current liabilities are higher than the current assets) indicates that the company may have trouble paying their short term obligations. It is wise to compare a company’s current ratio to that of other companies in the same industry. It would also be wise to look at the trend of the current ratio for a given company over a given time period.

Investors often have to make the decision of how aggressive they are going to invest. Some investors looking to make a quick dollar may jump in head first without a plan. This can be dangerous for the health of the portfolio in the long-term. Taking a chance on a risky stock may provide high returns, but investors often need to calculate whether the risk is worth the reward. Managing that risk in turbulent markets may help keep the average investor afloat when the markets inevitably turn sour for an extended period. Doing all the necessary stock research may include keeping a close tab on technicals, fundamentals, relevant economic data, and earnings reports. Investors may have to find a way to keep the rational side from being consumed by irrational behavior when studying the markets.

F Score, ERP5 and Magic Formula

The Piotroski F-Score is a scoring system between 1-9 that determines a firm’s financial strength.  The score helps determine if a company’s stock is valuable or not.  The Piotroski F-Score of New Flyer Industries Inc. (TSX:NFI) is 7.  A score of nine indicates a high value stock, while a score of one indicates a low value stock.  The score is calculated by the return on assets (ROA), Cash flow return on assets (CFROA), change in return of assets, and quality of earnings.  It is also calculated by a change in gearing or leverage, liquidity, and change in shares in issue.  The score is also determined by change in gross margin and change in asset turnover.

The ERP5 Rank is an investment tool that analysts use to discover undervalued companies.  The ERP5 looks at the Price to Book ratio, Earnings Yield, ROIC and 5 year average ROIC.  The ERP5 of New Flyer Industries Inc. (TSX:NFI) is 2953.  The lower the ERP5 rank, the more undervalued a company is thought to be. The MF Rank (aka the Magic Formula) is a formula that pinpoints a valuable company trading at a good price.  The formula is calculated by looking at companies that have a high earnings yield as well as a high return on invested capital.  The MF Rank of New Flyer Industries Inc. (TSX:NFI) is 1713.  A company with a low rank is considered a good company to invest in.  The Magic Formula was introduced in a book written by Joel Greenblatt, entitled, “The Little Book that Beats the Market”.

Shareholder Yield

The Q.i. Value of New Flyer Industries Inc. (TSX:NFI) is 18.00000.  The Q.i. Value is a helpful tool in determining if a company is undervalued or not.  The Q.i. Value is calculated using the following ratios: EBITDA Yield, Earnings Yield, FCF Yield, and Liquidity.  The lower the Q.i. value, the more undervalued the company is thought to be.  The Value Composite One (VC1) is a method that investors use to determine a company’s value.  The VC1 of New Flyer Industries Inc. (TSX:NFI) is 37.  A company with a value of 0 is thought to be an undervalued company, while a company with a value of 100 is considered an overvalued company.  The VC1 is calculated using the price to book value, price to sales, EBITDA to EV, price to cash flow, and price to earnings.  Similarly, the Value Composite Two (VC2) is calculated with the same ratios, but adds the Shareholder Yield.  The Value Composite Two of New Flyer Industries Inc. (TSX:NFI) is 46.

The Leverage Ratio of New Flyer Industries Inc. (TSX:NFI) is 0.274088.  Leverage ratio is the total debt of a company divided by total assets of the current and past year divided by two.  Companies take on debt to finance their day to day operations.  The leverage ratio can measure how much of a company’s capital comes from debt.  With this ratio, investors can better estimate how well a company will be able to pay their long and short term financial obligations.

Volatility & Price

We can now take a quick look at some historical stock price index data. New Flyer Industries Inc. (TSX:NFI) presently has a 10 month price index of 1.37735. The price index is calculated by dividing the current share price by the share price ten months ago. A ratio over one indicates an increase in share price over the period. A ratio lower than one shows that the price has decreased over that time period. Looking at some alternate time periods, the 12 month price index is 1.24034, the 24 month is 2.96280, and the 36 month is 4.10408. Narrowing in a bit closer, the 5 month price index is 1.24960, the 3 month is 1.00917, and the 1 month is currently 0.98419.

Stock volatility is a percentage that indicates whether a stock is a desirable purchase.  Investors look at the Volatility 12m to determine if a company has a low volatility percentage or not over the course of a year.  The Volatility 12m of New Flyer Industries Inc. (TSX:NFI) is 21.457400.  This is calculated by taking weekly log normal returns and standard deviation of the share price over one year annualized.  The lower the number, a company is thought to have low volatility.  The Volatility 3m is a similar percentage determined by the daily log normal returns and standard deviation of the share price over 3 months.  The Volatility 3m of New Flyer Industries Inc. (TSX:NFI) is 19.633000.  The Volatility 6m is the same, except measured over the course of six months.  The Volatility 6m is 18.279500.

C-Score
New Flyer Industries Inc. (TSX:NFI) currently has a Montier C-score of 2.00000. This indicator was developed by James Montier in an attempt to identify firms that were cooking the books in order to appear better on paper. The score ranges from zero to six where a 0 would indicate no evidence of book cooking, and a 6 would indicate a high likelihood. A C-score of -1 would indicate that there is not enough information available to calculate the score. Montier used six inputs in the calculation. These inputs included a growing difference between net income and cash flow from operations, increasing receivable days, growing day’s sales of inventory, increasing other current assets, decrease in depreciation relative to gross property plant and equipment, and high total asset growth.

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